BOSTON — More than 1.1 million people have already voted in Massachusetts as of Monday morning, according to Secretary of State William Galvin, though he didn’t offer a figure for just how many Bay Staters he thinks will turn out in total.
There’s been “a dramatic increase” in early in-person voting, Galvin said at a State House press conference, while the mail-in voting rate is about the same as it was in 2022.
Massachusetts voters this year face many uncontested races but also decisions on nine potential ballot laws and a race for governor between Republican Mike Minogue and Gov. Maura Healey.
“The significance of the in-person, I think, is it speaks to the desire of voters to have the opportunity to vote on the questions slowly, at least take as much time as they need, and it also probably is eating in to some extent to the people who are going to show up tomorrow — would have shown up tomorrow,” Galvin said.
“A lot of people have to show up to vote in person” Tuesday to hit 2022’s turnout of 2.5 million or 2018’s turnout of 2.7 million, Galvin said. The number of people visiting his website to see the location of their polling place, which he uses as an indicator, is down compared to past years, though he thinks “there’s a momentum that is hard to project, especially given the circumstances that we have that there aren’t intense races here.”
Voter turnout in the 2018 State Election was just over 60%, and voter turnout in 2022 was about 51.4% percent, according to data from Galvin’s website.
Galvin said there haven’t been many elections where he has felt this kind of uncertainty about turnout, but that indicators are often wrong. He pointed to the state primary in September, during which Democrats turned out higher than he anticipated and Republican turnout underperformed his estimates.
While the election in Massachusetts hasn’t been as intense as others, he said, “Then again, I look back to ’18, and Governor [Charlie] Baker was running for election. There wasn’t much intensity in that either, but we had a great turnout.”
“There, I think the national atmosphere was such. Now the national atmosphere is intensified, but are voters thinking in other directions?” Galvin continued. “Are they frustrated? I don’t know. I wish I could say, ‘This is the number and that’s what’s going to be.’ I can’t be that confident.”
Ahead of midterm elections where control of Congress is up for grabs, Galvin told reporters he thinks the election has become “a referendum on the economy, the direction of our nation and in fact the direction of the world.”
“It’s a measured study of where the country is and what it’s thinking, what it’s expecting,” Galvin said. “It’s not simply about the policies of this administration, it’s about where are we going? And what are we going to do? And that’s certainly the questions we have to confront here in Massachusetts. And so, for all those reasons, I think would have increased turnout. I think it’s an important thing to have certainty in place for the 2028 presidential cycle.”
Healey and Minogue have raised and spent millions of dollars during their contentious gubernatorial race. Though Galvin didn’t mention that contest specifically, national politics have seeped into it from both sides of the aisle.
“The question is, will we come up with another 1.5 million people tomorrow? It’s a hard question for me to answer. Usually, I’m offering a number. I’m simply not going to do that today because I think there are cross indicators,” he continued. He said he doesn’t think turnout will reach much higher than 2.5 million.
“As I often say, I hope I’m wrong,” Galvin said. “I want a big, big turnout, but on the other hand, I’m really not sure what it’s going to bring this year.”
There were concerns that the volume of ballot measures would slow or complicate the process or spur confusion. Galvin told reporters that he doesn’t think the amount of ballot cards will delay the election process or keep people in line, and that it appears most voters who voted in-person prepared for the polls.
Galvin said that he’s concerned “but not terribly worried” about federal interference or law enforcement presence at polling locations in Massachusetts, and that he’s “had communication” with the federal authorities.
“Observers are, of course, a part of the process and are welcome,” he said. “Federal observers are something that we’ve always had here, so that’s fine. I don’t think it’ll be interference. I’m almost as concerned, to be honest, about some of the observers who are supposedly protecting people from them interfering or creating issues.”
There are 57 contested legislative races among the 200 seats on the ballot Tuesday, and 18 seats are open, eight of them contested. Even if Republicans won every race in which they’re challenging a Democrat, Democrats would retain their supermajorities in both chambers for the 2027-2028 session.
Two incumbents, both Democrats, lost their seats in the primary: Sen. Michael Rush, who lost to challenger Persis Yu, and Rep. Francisco Paulino, who was ousted by Celina Reyes. There are 49 incumbents facing a challenge Tuesday, 10 senators and 39 representatives, or about a quarter of the Legislature.
According to the numbers as of Friday, more than 733,000 early votes were by mail and more than 336,000 were cast in-person. The figures combined to represent about 20.5% total voter turnout in a state with 5,230,765 registered voters.
Galvin also noted that he thinks the measure he’s backing to legalize Election Day registration, Question 4, is going to do well based on polling and comments from voters. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of 500 registered voters in mid-October found more than 59% of respondents’ supported Question 4. A UMass/WCVB poll conducted Oct. 5 through Oct. 12 found that 67% of 800 registered voters supported the measure.
Commenting on the diversity of ballot measures, Galvin said, “It’s been a phenomenal experience in democracy.”
“We feel that, you know, the voters are prepared. The book has been widely read. It’s a bestseller this year for some reason,” Galvin said of his office’s red voter information pamphlet. “The bottom line is, people have looked into what the impact of the questions are. There remain close races in the questions.”