Correction: A previous version of this story misidentified a Virginia congressional district. Virginia’s 7th congressional district could give good early indicators for how the night will develop, according to Bill Scher.
NORTHAMPTON — The 2018 midterm elections are among the most anticipated events of the year. Control of both houses of Congress is at stake, as well as numerous governorships, state legislative races, and state offices whose occupants will be chosen Tuesday.
Many Democrats have framed the election as a referendum on President Donald Trump, while Republicans have attempted to shore up their positions and protect their federal majorities.
The congressional elections in western Massachusetts as well as the race for U.S. Senate in the commonwealth are not expected to be competitive. Nevertheless, local political observers and activists, a number of whom have been participating in campaigns out of state, will be keenly watching the results.
“I am nervous,” said Michael Aleo, a Northampton attorney and Democratic Party activist. “Maybe I’m cautiously optimistic.”
Aleo, who said he has been following the news and the work of polling analyst Nate Silver, said he believes “there is a very good chance that Dems take the House.”
However, when it comes to the Senate, Aleo said, “I’m not particularly hopeful.”
Aleo added that, while Trump has motivated the progressive base like no one else before, there’s no guarantee that Democrats will take back the House or the Senate.
In terms of races he’s watching, Aleo noted the race for New York’s 19th Congressional District, which is seeing a contest between incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Faso and Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado, for whom Aleo has phone-banked. He said he is also excited about the candidacy of Democratic Florida gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum, and for the ballot measure there that would restore voting rights for most felons in that state who have completed their sentences.
Joe Tarantino, of Northampton, serves as the Hampshire County chairman of Western Mass Republicans.
“I think the Republicans are going to hold the Senate,” Tarantino said. “I think that there’s better than a fifty-fifty chance that the Republicans hold the House.”
Tarantino cited an undercurrent of voters disgusted with politics as a reason for his prediction. He also mentioned a lifelong Democrat he knows who was sickened by White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders being referred to as a pig by another Democrat.
He noted the result of the 2016 presidential election; that year he drove from Santa Monica, California, to Chicago. Between the two metropolitan areas, he said, “I didn’t see one single Hillary sign anywhere.”
In contrast, Tarantino said, he saw many Trump signs, and added that he believes this year will be a repeat of 2016.
Tarantino also criticized the discourse on the Democratic side, as well as the left-wing movement Antifa, saying that “squawking screaming Democrats” will be surprised that they haven’t persuaded more people.
“If people can’t speak civilly, they’re going to draw the curtain and they’re going to shout at the ballot box,” he said.
He noted the negative reaction that the owner of Dave’s Soda and Pet City got for appearing in a photograph with President Trump on Oct. 12, 2017, as the president signed an executive order on health care.
“The Republicans, they’re tired of getting screamed at,” he said, adding that he doesn’t know a single Republican who has been persuaded by the Democrats.
“It’s like a sugar high,” he said. “They haven’t changed any minds.”
As for races he’s looking at, Tarantino pointed to the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona.
Another Republican who weighed in on the midterms was Dan Allie, chairman of the Westfield Republican City Committee and a member of the Westfield City Council.
“I think it’s an important election,” he said.
Allie said he thinks the Republicans will hold the Senate. He also said he thinks the confirmation process for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh didn’t sit well with people.
“This was a lot of showboating,” he said. “In this country we have a presumption of innocence, no matter what.”
Allie was out with Agawam City Council member Cecilia Calabrese in support of State Rep. Geoff Diehl, who is running for U.S. Senate as a Republican against incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
“I think that’s going to be a nail-biter,” she said.
Calabrese expressed confidence that Republicans would hold onto their majority in the U.S. Senate, and possibly gain seats, but said it would be tougher in the House.
She also noted the political diversity in her family, which she said includes Republicans, Democrats and a “registered Communist.”
“My family is so amazingly divided,” she said.
Calabrese expressed the belief that whichever party ends up with control of the House, it will be by no more than one or two votes.
Stephen Linsky, an Easthampton attorney and mediator, went down to Texas to volunteer for Texas U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who is challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
“The enthusiasm that I saw was almost unrivaled,” he said, comparing it to the enthusiasm for Obama he witnessed in 2008 in south Florida.
Although he acknowledged he was mostly in the Austin area, a largely Democratic part of Texas, Linsky said that he saw support for O’Rourke from both minority voters and from affluent white voters.
In terms of congressional races he will be watching, Linsky cited N.Y. 19 and New Hampshire’s two congressional districts.
“How they go would be very indicative,” he said.
“This is all in for the future of the republic,” said Chris Palames, chairman of Northampton’s Commission on Disability, on the upcoming midterm election.
Palames, who is a Democratic Party activist, characterized the election as a chance to “put in the firewall” against the Trump administration.
“The Democrats are going to be taking back the House,” Palames said. “The Senate’s a far reach.”
Elizabeth Silver, chairwoman of the Northampton Democratic Party City Committee, is a main organizer for the Western Mass Take Back the House Coalition, which is seeking to flip control of the lower chamber for the Democrats.
She estimated that, over the weekend, some 200 people cycled through the organization’s 18 Center St. office in Northampton and phone-banked.
“It was a very large number of people,” she said.
Silver said the campaign in western Massachusetts has been involved in 34 races, with efforts concentrated in N.Y. 19, New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
Northampton resident Bill Scher, a contributing editor of Politico Magazine, said he is hesitant to make any outright predictions.
“We’ve all been burned before,” he said.
Scher also said there has been a limited amount of polling across the competitive races. However, he said that on the money side, Democrats are spending money heavily on Republican turf in the House. In the Senate, because of the map, he said Republicans are in better shape to keep or even gain seats.
“A lot of things have to break right for Democrats to take the Senate,” he said.
In terms of races to watch for the fortunes of Democrats, he cited N.Y. 19 and Maine 2.
“New York 19 is just a really closely divided swing district,” he said.
He also said that the results in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, as well as Virginia’s 5th and 7th congressional districts, in states where the polls close earlier, could give good early indicators for how the night will develop.
Retiring state Rep. John Scibak, D-South Hadley, said he thinks there will be a lot of surprises in the midterms.
“I think people are recognizing that much of what is coming out of the White House has been as far from the truth as anything can be,” he said.
Scibak will be moving down to Florida full-time in January, and he noted the strong performance of Gillum in the polls.
“Would anybody six months ago have given a person a chance to be governor who is African-American and progressive?” he said.
Bera Dunau can be reached at bdunau@gazettenet.com.