Late this past Tuesday night I was sitting in my family room staring at a blank, silent, switched-off television. I know – I grant you – at first glance this does not paint a picture of robust mental health.
And, in truth, I was feeling more than a little anxious and depressed because the voters of Indiana had just anointed the mercurial, vacuous, unqualified, ignorant, racist and misogynist Donald Trump as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. That result made me extremely anxious. In addition, the mainstream media was reporting and repeating that notwithstanding Bernie’s victory in that day’s Democratic primary, his campaign effectively was finished. Hearing this drumbeat of finality made me depressed.
Underestimating Trump constitutes one of my many political analysis failures this election cycle. Once upon a time I had thought that Jim Webb, the former senator, Secretary of the Navy, and Vietnam veteran from the swing state of Virginia – if he raised enough money – could conceivably pose a challenge to Clinton. He lasted one debate. I granted Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland and mayor of Baltimore, the same possibility. He lasted a few debates longer.
Moving on.
At least I knew from the start that former Rhode Island senator and governor Lincoln Chafee would not last in this race more than a nano-second. Somehow his proposal during the announcement of his candidacy that America really needed to adopt the metric system struck me as a tad less bold than what the occasion demanded.
Of course, Bernie’s announcement wasn’t exactly a barnburner. He explained to the handful of reporters present that he needed to be brief and leave soon because he had another appointment. Come on, Bernie, I thought to myself. I mean, I love you, but seriously, this is how you announce that you’re running for president?
Years ago, when Sanders was the Vermont congressman, he agreed to speak at a western Massachusetts ACLU dinner at the Hotel Northampton. I had not previously met him and well understood that he hardly needed to travel here to give yet another speech at another dinner in front of an audience who couldn’t vote in his district.
But Bernie believes in civil rights (he marched with Dr. King) and civil liberties, and he accepted the invitation.
Winning the Indiana primary last Tuesday garnered Bernie only five more delegates than Hillary. (Don’t you just love that we’re all on a first name basis?) Indeed, his victory speech acknowledged the long and winding road, in actuality, the narrowest of paths, that might lead him to the Democratic nomination. Here’s the journey:
Run the table in the remaining 11 primaries, narrow the selected delegate deficit, create enormous momentum, poll better than Hillary against Trump – and all this will cause super delegates in states where Bernie has won the primaries or caucuses to renege on their pledges to back Clinton. Unfortunately for Bernie, even then, the delegate math falls short.
That said, something calamitous could derail the Clinton campaign. What happens, for example, if a devastating transcript from her Goldman Sach’s speech is revealed? What would be the consequences if the story of her private email server as Secretary of State blows up?
It could. On Wednesday a federal judge indicated that Clinton might have to testify under oath in a civil suit whether she used her private email server to evade legally required public records disclosures.
In an early debate Bernie said that he was “sick and tired of hearing about [Clinton’s] damn emails” and gave her a pass on her private server. But Trump won’t.
On Tuesday evening, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow and Brian Wilson were discussing – with the caveat that nothing significant comes out of left (actually, right) field to undermine Clinton – the possible endgame for Bernie. Rachel (we actually are on a first-name basis) and Brian agreed that Sanders necessarily would be offered a primetime television hour at the convention, but then the question became, what else?
That was the same question I recently posed on my radio show to Josh Silver, the CEO of the Northampton and Washington D.C.-based organization Represent.Us – getting big money out of politics.
In response, Josh pointed out that Bernie has already significantly influenced Hillary Clinton’s positions on trade, the Keystone XL Pipeline, the minimum wage, campaign finance reform, corporate privilege and taxes. And, Silver added, Bernie would return to the Unites States Senate as the acknowledged, forceful and respected leader of a political revolution with millions of supporters across the country.
Of course, Sanders’ future senatorial influence depends on us never having to hear the words President Donald Trump. And despite my recent errors of political prognostication, I make the following forward-looking statement with absolute certainty: there is nothing remotely funny about that phrase.
Bill Newman is a Northampton lawyer, host of a WHMP weekday program and author of “When the War Came Home.” His column appears the first Saturday of the month. He can be reached at opinion@gazettenet.com.