Here in New England, little attention is paid to life in old England. Politics at home are compelling enough. And so the approach of Britain’s Thursday vote on leaving the European Union may not have registered for many.
It should now.
Despite warnings that quitting the 28-member bloc would damage the British economy, devalue its currency, prompt inflation, cost people jobs and usher in a new austerity, a clear majority of voters wanted out.
The outcome opens a chasm of uncertainty, politically and economically – in Britain and around the world. The result drove global markets down Friday, with the Dow losing 3.4 percent of its value. In this global age, people with investments feel the impact of economic changes everywhere. It’s unclear how far-reaching the economic damage might be.
While membership in the EU is economic by nature, this decision turned on emotion. Proponents of leaving whipped up anger over centralized control from Brussels and bemoaned the erosion of British sovereignty.
In their own way, they spoke of making Britain great again – and if that echoes a theme from this year’s U.S. presidential campaign, that’s no coincidence.
The so-called Brexit drive had been called a “Trumpification” of European politics spurred by national pride, a sense of “exceptionalism” and opposition to the easy movement of workers allowed throughout the EU.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said Friday he welcomed the result. Trump must be encouraged by the fact that the “leave” forces drew support from white working-class men who feel left behind by economic change.
One leader of the campaign to quit the EU said the win enables his country to take control of its laws and borders. This island nation doesn’t need a wall, but proponents of quitting the bloc cited the prospect of stepped-up immigration from Turkey, if that nation is allowed to join the EU. Brexit backers weren’t just imagining the impact of immigration; in 2015, net immigration to Britain came to 330,000 people.
Thursday’s vote was only the second time Britain voted on this issue. The first came in 1975, when the nation opted in. That left pollsters and political handicappers little to go on in predicting the outcome.
While the vote appeared to be close, Prime Minister David Cameron had been confident he could persuade Britons to preserve ties to the EU. Why? Perhaps because the arguments in favor of that were so strong.
But anti-establishment anger proved overwhelming, leading Cameron to announce Friday he will resign his office by this fall.
The vote sent shock waves through centers of financial and political power that will reverberate for months.
Brexit delivers a body blow to the EU, which has struggled to advance the common interests of its members through the 2008 financial crisis and the influx of migrants fleeing violence in the Middle East. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called the vote a “turning point for Europe” that puts the principle of unification at risk.
People now fear a domino effect that weakens the EU and may prompt leaders and residents of other countries in the bloc, including France and the Netherlands, to ponder their own exit. Britain is the EU’s second-largest economy, after Germany.
Britain’s own identity may be in jeopardy. While the vote to leave the EU was 52 percent to 48 percent overall, the question failed 62-38 in Scotland, where people began to talk immediately of scheduling another independence vote that could separate Scotland from the United Kingdom and enable it to join the EU on its own.
The last century saw two world wars decimate Europe, killing tens of millions. The world benefits from a strong, unified Europe. The EU, for all its struggles, is a force for peace and prosperity and must endure.