PITTSBURGH
On Tuesday morning, the Atlantic 10 will release its 2016-17 preseason men’s basketball poll and shortly after that the coaches at media day will begin talking about how little it means.
It’s an annual tradition.
But UMass figures to be particularly hard to project with its opener against UMass-Lowell (Nov. 11, Mullins Center) less than a month away.
The Minutemen have been picked anywhere from ninth to 11th in preseason magazines.
With as many as seven new players joining a rotation in a system that doesn’t look like the one UMass played last year, it’s hard to know how everything will fit together.
So here’s nine questions that will better determine how good the Minutemen can be and where they’ll actually be in the Atlantic 10 standings when the league returns to Pittsburgh for its conference tournament in March.
How much better can Rashaan Holloway be? — The sophomore big man is considerably smaller and looks quicker that he was a year ago. Even when he was heavy last year, he was hard to contain late in the season.
He’ll need to be in better shape to get up and down the floor if the Minutemen are going to go back to playing up-tempo. Better stamina could help him avoid foul trouble, which hindered him last year too.
If he can stay on the floor Holloway could be a weapon. Few teams have true centers anymore. If he’s effective, most teams will have to either double team or play zone against him which would open things up for the perimeter.
Can UMass make more 3-pointers? — If Holloway draws double-teams or zones and the Minutemen can’t shoot over them that’s a problem. The Minutemen were 11th in the league shooting 33.0 percent from outside. Trey Davis and Jabarie Hinds, who both graduated, made over half the 3s for the Minutemen. Ty Flowers and Luwane Pipkins arrive with reputations as excellent shooters, but UMass has had great projected shooters before whose marksmanship didn’t translate to the college games (Max Groebe, Brennan Martin, etc.).
Transfer Zach Lewis made a lot of 3-pointers at Canisius, but shot just 31.5 percent as a sophomore. UMass is hoping his percentage goes up when he isn’t being asked to carry the offense.
Will Donte Clark become an elite player? — UMass will be counting on Clark to score from all distances. In his previous two seasons, he showed signs of being a star, but he often deferred to older players. There are no older players now. Is he ready be a leader on and off the court?
Who takes a big shot late? — For the past two years, Davis was eager to have the ball in hands with the game on the line. Is somebody else ready for that role? Clark is a logical candidate, but freshmen guards Pipkins and Dejon Jarreau both play with a swagger and could be willing big-shot takers.
Can UMass coach Derek Kellogg keep everybody happy? — Depending on Brison Gresham’s status (see below), UMass will have either 12 or 13 players competing for playing time. That’s a lot of mouths to feed. There aren’t many teams that have had rotations of that many players. Kellogg’s challenge will be maintaining chemistry while putting his best lineup on the floor.
One beneficiary of the expanded roster could be Zach Coleman. When he’s been healthy, he’s been an effective defender and rebounder, and a solid scorer. Unlike some of his teammates, he doesn’t need the ball to contribute. Everyone on the roster will likely get fewer minutes and he’ll have a better chance not to wear out his balky knees.
Who will start? — While who is on the floor at tipoff gets enormous amounts of attention, it matters very little. Who gets the most minutes, especially second-half minutes, and who is on the floor in a tight game late matters much more.
Kellogg could very likely start veterans all year while giving his freshmen more time as they earn it as the year progresses.
It’ll be interesting to see how the rotation evolves from Nov. 11 to Jan. 1 to March 1.
How much will the freshmen contribute? — This is the ultimate wild card. Everybody loves the recruiting class, but even great freshmen usually take some time to develop defensively and avoid foul trouble. Jarreau will likely play a lot of point guard. Making decisions comfortable at high speed takes time.
Pipkins, who sat out last year, has already shown some leadership tendencies and could be a key player quickly.
Chris Baldwin could give the Minutemen the physical presence at the four that’s been missing for years.
But it’s a lot to expect those players to be at their peaks every night.
If Holloway and Clark take steps, the newcomers won’t need to carry too much of the load too fast.
Will Gresham be eligible? — UMass is waiting to determine whether the freshman big man can play. If he can, they will have one of the deepest rosters in program history. Gresham’s presence would likely allow Coleman and Seth Berger to play more minutes at the three. He’d also give Kellogg another big man who is athletic enough to play at the front of the press the way Maxie Esho and Sean Carter did effectively.
How good will the Atlantic 10 be? — Will E.C. Matthews be healthy enough to lead Rhode Island? Can Dayton overcome its lack of size? Will La Salle’s transfers come together well enough to compete? Can George Washington overcome its coach controversy? How UMass finishes will depend a lot on how the rest of the A-10 comes together.
Matt Vautour can be reached at mvautour@gazettenet.com. Get UMass coverage delivered in your Facebook news feed at www.facebook.com/GazetteUMassCoverage