NORTHAMPTON — Experts say North Korea has accumulated numerous nuclear warheads — some several times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 — and has conducted underground tests.
This is the closest the United States has come to a nuclear exchange since the Cuban Missile Crisis, according to Thomas Countryman, chairman of the Arms Control Association board.
“We were damn lucky there was no nuclear exchange in 1962,” said Countryman, who was an assistant secretary of state overseeing arms control and nuclear nonproliferation issues from 2011-17.
While North Korea has made significant advances with nuclear weapons, Countryman said the odds of an attack on the United States are low.
Countryman, along with Smith College government professor Dennis Yasutomo, Five College professor of peace and world security studies Michael Klare and U.S. Rep. James McGovern, who spoke via video link, shared their thoughts on the situation at hand at a forum Wednesday night.
The forum, “The North Korea Threat and U.S. Policy: Is War Avoidable? What Can We Do?” was organized by the Northampton Democratic City Committee at Northampton High School.
McGovern explained the simple procedures of the National Security Authority: The president makes the decision to use nuclear weapons and the secretary of defense executes that order.
“If that doesn’t scare the hell out of you right now, I don’t know what will,” McGovern said. “Once the decision is made and in the process of being carried out, our system of checks and balances doesn’t apply. Congress couldn’t stop it, the Supreme Court couldn’t stop it.”
A bill, “No Unconstitutional Strike Against North Korea Act,” was introduced last week to prohibit the president from initiating a war or launching a first strike without congressional approval, McGovern noted.
“Because war is war is war is war,” McGovern said.
The likelihood of President Donald Trump ordering a nuclear strike on North Korea is “small, but it is not zero,” Countryman said.
“It is possible that this is on the president’s menu of choices today,” Countryman said.
The possibility of North Korea launching a nuclear attack on the United States is even smaller, Countryman said, but it “is not zero.”
Klare said North Korea is on the verge of having the capacity to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, with a nuclear warhead onto U.S. territory. Trump does not seem to have a viable strategy moving forward, he said.
North Korea wouldn’t be threatening the U.S. with nuclear ICBMs if its leaders did not perceive a strategic political purpose. Although experts do not know exactly what that is, Klare said the Kim dynasty has always feared invasion by South Korea and the overthrow of the regime.
Yasutomo said in the past year, the North Korean economy has grown 3 to 5 percent, but the country has also been hit with tougher economic sanctions that are taking a toll.
“This pushes North Korea, and some people, to feel even more threatened because economic collapse also suggests regime change,” he said. “Therefore, they are acting more belligerent by relying on their enhanced nuclear power.”
Klare said residents should reach out to members of Congress to urge them to support bills like the “No Unconstitutional Strike Against North Korea Act.”
“Northampton can make that voice heard,” he said.
Caitlin Ashworth can be reached at cashworth@gazettenet.com.