Richard Fein’s June 24 column (“President Trump sometimes gets things right”) gets it half right.
What the column correctly makes clear is that Trump deserves credit for taking on China’s array of unfair trade practices. Yet, the administration’s analysis of the problem and its strategy to effect change leaves much to be desired.
Acting unilaterally, the Trump administration has increased tariffs on Chinese exports in an effort to get China to turn away from its state-dominated economy. The administration’s argument for these tariffs has consistently been short-term pain, long-term gain.
China has reciprocated and imposed tariffs on U.S. agricultural and goods exports. As a result, U.S. farmers have lost billions of dollars in sales and many U.S. manufacturers are having to increase their prices or consider moving their operations offshore.
Many Republicans worry whether this short-term pain might persist into the upcoming election year. Whether there will be any long-term gain is impossible to answer unless an actual agreement is reached.
If President Trump can get a strong agreement that entails sweeping reforms and is enforceable, he wins big-time. If Trump ends up with a weak agreement and one China flaunts (he will for sure proclaim it the greatest trade agreement ever negotiated), Democrats next year will be pointing out that nothing has changed in our trading relationship with China.
The odds on Chinese President Xi Jinping agreeing to a strong agreement that will threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s control of the economy are low. Over the past few years, Xi has shown little interest in lessening the government’s heavy hand in directing the economy.
One has to wonder whether acting unilaterally was the best approach to pressure China into acting as a more responsible trading partner. Enlisting our European and Asian allies may have been a more effective way to induce China to make reforms that are in its own economic interest.
Raymond James Ahearn
Holyoke
The writer served as a specialist in International Trade and Finance at the Congressional Research Service in Washington, DC for 35 years.