BOSTON – It’s a foot race.
That’s how Dr. Robert Duncan, director of hospital epidemiology and infection control at Lahey Hospital and Medical Center, described the sprint between vaccinating large portions of the population in the state and across the country and the potential for variants of COVID-19 to cause another surge in infections.
Three main variants discovered in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351), and Brazil (P.1) have renewed calls to take precautions against infection. Duncan said communities need “to marshal our best defenses” against the virus to keep it from emerging and re-emerging.
“The more chances you give to expand the universe of the virus and people infected with the virus, the more virus there is that’s out there and the greater pool you have to reap more mutation from,” he said. “The more we can limit that, the more limited the chances are that this will take off again. I think our defenses are hugely augmented from where they were before so I think that’s an enormous advantage and we just have to keep pushing that, keep our foot on the accelerator.”
The Department of Public Health announced in mid-January that officials had detected the first case of the B.1.1.7 variant in the state. The individual, a Brockton resident in their 20s, according to officials, had developed symptoms earlier in the month and later tested positive for COVID-19.
About a month later, DPH announced the first case of the B.1.351 COVID-19 variant found in a 20-year-old female from Middlesex county. And this week, officials said they detected the first case of the P.1. variant in a 30-year-old female from Barnstable County.
Over 250 cases of the B.1.1.7 and seven cases of the B.1.351 have been detected in the state, according to data last updated on Thursday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Massachusetts has the highest case counts of three variants among New Hampshire, New York State, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, the data shows.
After a year of lockdowns, restrictions on social activity, and months of staying at home, progress on vaccinations has brought renewed hope to citizens and officials alike. Massachusetts plans to enter its final phase of reopening on Monday and Gov. Charlie Baker announced Friday that the state had vaccinated over 1 million people, about a quarter of his minimum goal.
Duncan said while the country has made “enormous progress” over the last 15 months of fighting the pandemic, people need to keep wearing masks and seek out vaccines when they are eligible. The vaccine, he said, is not a “get out of jail free card.”
“These variants are certainly posing a threat but our defenses are improving and we have a lot of rapid response we can work with,” he said. “These vaccines help enormously and I think we really have to emphasize that everyone should get them but they’re not a panacea and you need to keep up vigilance. This is an investment that will pay off later. And it’s painful to keep it up at this point, but we need to keep it up.”
The seven-day average of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts has largely trended downward since it hit the highest peak of 6,240 at the start of January. Yesterday, DPH reported 1,129 confirmed cases, a 1.93% seven-day average percent positivity, and 27 deaths.
“The other factor is the community rates, which appear to be dropping but also hitting a plateau, and there are a lot of people concerned about the threat of entering a fourth wave,” Duncan said. “I think that’s one of the concerns and what’s the role of the mutants in causing that.”
Even in the first week of the pandemic, people started to ask when life would return to normal. Like many other public officials, Duncan said vaccinations are key.
“One of the questions is when can we get back to doing the usual procedures that we do in hospitals,” he said. “The determining factors for this are how well vaccinated our staff are. I can tell you our staff are approaching 80 percent vaccination rates at this point and those vaccination rates both in the hospitals and in the public are accelerating.”