Many inside and outside Ukraine are seeing the writing on the wall – Russia is on the verge of winning the war after three and a half years of bitter fighting.  These commentators include retired U.S. Lt. Col Daniel Davis; retired U.S. Col. Douglas Macgregor; and George Beebe, former top CIA Russia analyst.

The Ukrainian army is in deep trouble on many fronts, including being nearly surrounded in Pokrovsk, a key city in Ukraine’s defenses in the whole region.  If it falls, other nearby cities will probably soon follow.  Then the Russians could push Ukraine not just out of the Donbas area in the eastern fifth of the country, where the war has mainly been fought, but all the way across the Dnieper River that divides it in half.

According to Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute near Boston:  “There is no perfect settlement to end this war. The one now apparently taking shape does, however, look about right in terms of what could realistically be achieved. For the sake of the tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians who will die if the war continues, all parties have a duty to abandon maximalist dreams.”

There are also other vitally important reasons to end this war now, even with significant concessions by Ukraine such as agreeing to stay neutral and out of NATO, and facing the military reality that it can’t win back much of the Donbas region that Russia and its Ukrainian separatist allies now hold.  The biggest is to avoid the possibility that the US/NATO could choose to help Ukraine avoid defeat by escalating the war with more money, possible troops and airpower, and missiles that could hit Moscow and other heartland cities.  This could risk turning the war into a direct confrontation between the West and Russia.  And that could easily lead to a far greater catastrophe, not just for Ukraine and Russia, but for Europe, the U.S., and the whole world–nuclear war.

One of the leading American nuclear arms experts, MIT Professor Emeritus Ted Postol, has been raising the alarm about this growing risk.  In May 2024, he warned about the recklessness of a Ukrainian drone attack – no doubt with U.S. intelligence and satellite guidance assistance – on three of Russia’s 10 early-warning radar systems to detect a missile attack.  Russia might have mistakenly thought it was under attack by the U.S., and launched its missiles before they could be destroyed.  The result: an accidental nuclear war! 

In June of this year, Ukraine pulled off a similar drone attack, again with near-certain U.S. help – on five Russian strategic airbases.  A few unarmed Russian bombers that can carry nuclear bombs were damaged.  Both these attacks were unprecedented in the 80-year history of the nuclear arms race between the two superpowers, Russia and the U.S.  They were also extremely dangerous and destabilizing.

Then just before the recent 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Trump tried some nuclear saber-rattling to pressure the Russians to accept his peace deal by ordering two fully-armed nuclear submarines to move in closer to Russia’s shores.  That was yet another foolish and scary step bringing us closer to nuclear war.

I hope that even though Trump and Putin can’t yet agree on a peace agreement for Ukraine after their summit meeting, at least they’ll agree to start serious negotiations to save the most important U.S./Russia nuclear arms control treaty of the past 40 years, called START.  It’s set to expire in just six months!  If it’s not renewed, both nations will continue the enormously expensive nuclear arms race, increasing the danger of nuclear war while draining hundreds of billions of our tax dollars so urgently needed for domestic human and environmental needs.

Lastly, let’s not forget that other existential threat facing humanity – climate change.  President Trump and much of his MAGA base think it’s a hoax, and just want to “Drill Baby Drill” and burn ever more fossil fuels.  The Ukraine war must be ended so that our country and Russia can at least work together in their common interest and help lead the world in addressing the climate emergency.

John Berkowitz of Northampton is a member of Massachusetts Peace Action’s Ukraine Peace Campaign.