I felt sad reading your March 2 story about the 6 visiting Ukrainian students and faculty at area colleges discussing how the war in Ukraine is going on its recent fourth anniversary [“Ukrainians reflect on war four years on”]. I want this war to end as much as they do, with its horrific toll of soldiers and devastation of their country, so that they can return, rebuild, and live in peace.
But I disagree with one professor’s understandably hopeful conclusion “that there are many reasons why Ukraine can still win this.” The political and retired military analysts whom I watch and read, such as Army Col. Daniel Davis, Marine Captain Matthew Hoh, and Columbia Prof. Ivana Hughes, maintain that the military situation is much worse than our Ukrainian visitors admit.
Ukraine has suffered far greater casualties, both dead and maimed, than its government-released statistics reveal. That’s why they have a severe manpower shortage — not only because of these hundreds of thousands, possibly over a million losses, but because so many other men are avoiding forced conscription by hiding in their homes, paying huge bribes, or illegally escaping the country. On top of that, the desertion rate is skyrocketing as so many servicemen have given up hope of winning this war and just want to survive and return to their families.
Our local Ukrainians also claimed their country has fought the Russians to a stalemate because the Russia hasn’t gained much ground in four years of war. I don’t doubt the courage and sacrifice of Ukrainian soldiers, but I do doubt this group’s wishful thinking “that Ukraine has hardly bent under pressure.”
I think Russia has a long-range war-fighting strategy, and they have methodically set the stage for a major offensive this spring or summer, with a huge buildup across the border of reserve troops and logistical support. This will find Ukrainian defenses so weakened that the Russians will reach their goal of pushing the Ukrainian army out of the Donbass region completely. Then they’ll be poised to push much deeper into the heartland of Ukraine and threatening the major cities of Kharkiv in the north and Odesa in the south.
This would probably mean the end of Ukraine as a viable, independent nation. That’s why I think the Ukrainian people and government should face the music now, and negotiate the best deal they can get with Russia — even with painful concessions of territory and giving up potential NATO membership — or they’ll lose much more soon.
Regardless of what anyone thinks of Putin and his policies, I’m convinced that Russia regards this as an existential war. Having a hostile Ukraine, with a huge army trained by NATO and armed with missiles right on its southern border, is a potential security threat Russia can’t tolerate. Would the U.S. not have a similar red line if Canada or Mexico allied with Russia or China and used their help to build up a huge military force on our border, along with long-range missiles aimed at our heartland?
And we can’t overlook the fact that in World War II, the USSR lost 27 million soldiers and civilians. That number is so horrifying it’s nearly unimaginable. Such national trauma can’t be left out of the equation to explain Russian actions, however illegal under international law today.
I find University of Rhode Island Prof. Nicolai Petro’s analysis in his 2024 book “The Tragedy of Ukraine” very insightful. Of Ukrainian origin, he taught and did research there often between 2009 and 2021. He asserts that the origins of this war go much further back than the 2022 Russian invasion. It’s been a civil war between pro- and anti-Russian Ukrainians, with those differing beliefs forming over centuries.
But many countries have survived bloody civil wars, and found ways to reconcile from such seemingly unending strife. I agree with him that it’s possible for Ukrainians, too. This war must be ended soon through negotiations, not escalation, such as if the US/NATO sends in EU troops, airpower, and long-range missiles to try and help Ukraine avoid further losses and even total military defeat.
This would be doubly suicidal. Not only would a generation of Ukrainian men be decimated, but the conflict could turn into a direct confrontation between the West and Russia. That would likely mean nuclear war, a catastrophe not just for Ukraine and Russia, but the whole world.
John Berkowitz of Northampton is a member of Massachusetts Peace Action’s Ukraine Peace Campaign.