It started when Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Donald Trump that a coordinated bombing campaign could actually bring down the Islamic Republic’s regime. So they did it. Israel beheaded the regime while U.S. forces concentrated on attacking military positions and forces. The result: Iran sustained considerable damage, but the regime reorganized itself and retained the ability to attack neighboring countries.
Netanyahu convinced Trump that the war would be over in days, a few weeks at most. This was critical to Trump, who had promised to avoid foreign wars. Trump was already in deep political trouble at home, and couldn’t afford a long, costly and inconclusive war. But Netanyahu actually needed war to stave off a corruption trial and, he hoped, prevent defeat in forthcoming elections. He got his war; Trump was trapped.
Any fool with a map would see that the Iranians could close the Strait of Hormuz and thereby block 20 percent of the world’s petroleum. But apparently nobody in the White House or the “War” Department thought of that, or considered what the U.S. could do about it.
It turned out, bereft of allies due to a complete failure to consult anybody before starting the war, there wasn’t much Trump could do about it. He blockaded Iranian shipping; that was about it. So here he was, with oil and gas prices spiking and the world economy teetering on the edge of crisis. Even Trump knew enough history to avoid putting troops on the ground in Iran, but that would have been the only way to actually win the war.
So Trump had to have a settlement. The Iranians, though, had shown that they could absorb a lot of punishment without losing the capacity to strike back. The Memorandum of Understanding shows clearly that Trump gave ground on every important issue. Sanctions against Iran would end. Iran’s frozen assets would be made available. Funds were to be found for Iranian reconstruction.
Crucially, the accord stipulated that all hostilities would cease, including in Lebanon, where the Israelis remained in an interminable war with Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah was party to the negotiations. Indeed, Trump froze Netanyahu out of even consultation and was probably angry with him for tricking him into a war without end. Which of course is exactly what Netanyahu needs.
Before the war, the alliance between Netanyahu and Trump seemed rock solid. But now, their conflicting needs have sundered that alliance. The right wing press in Israel (no doubt speaking for Netanyahu) have roundly condemned the accord with Iran as a complete capitulation. And so it is. The Iranians have reaffirmed what they have been saying for years: that they will not seek to develop nuclear weapons. That was the only concession they made.
Neither Hezbollah or Israel will end hostilities. And since the accord stipulates that Lebanon is included, hostilities in Lebanon could blow the whole thing up.
In the forthcoming negotiations on their nuclear program, it is hard to imagine that Trump, in his weakened position, can achieve the binding agreement with inspections that Obama’s team reached. You remember: that was the agreement that Trump condemned as weak and tore up in 2018.
Trump will never admit that he fell short of what Obama did, but it’s there for everyone to see.
So where are we? The erosion of our alliances has advanced: we are more isolated than ever. The world economy has taken a serious hit from which it will not easily recover. The production capacity of all the Persian Gulf countries has been damaged, and won’t recover easily. The high-tech U.S. war effort, has minimized our casualties (not those of Iran), but the costs have been high. Stocks of critical weapons such as missiles have been depleted. Extended deployments of ships, planes, and personnel have worn them down, just when we face a possible confrontation with China over Taiwan.
We are, in short, far weaker across the board than we were before this foolish war of choice.
Trump, facing an economic meltdown, admitted that he had to end the war, because he didn’t want to be remembered like Herbert Hoover.
Yet again, it’s all about him.
John Peeler lives in Amherst.