Gov. Maura Healey is maintaining a lead in polls two weeks ahead of Election Day, while the race is tightening around ballot questions to allow public defenders to unionize, create an all-party primary system, and constrain the state’s revenue cap.

Amidst concerns about the cost of living and taxes being the top two factors driving Massachusetts voters to the polls, they seem poised to reelect an incumbent for another four years, according to a UMass Amherst / WCVB poll released on Monday. It was conducted Oct. 5 through Oct. 12 of 800 registered voters, with a 4.2% margin of error.

Of those polled, 56% would reelect Healey, while 31% supported Republican challenger Mike Minogue, 5% were backing independent candidate Andrea James, and 7% said they still don’t know who they’re planning to vote for.

The top three factors motivating voters when choosing a gubernatorial candidate were: the state’s cost of living (42%), taxes (32%), and the candidate’s party (25%).

Most voters agree that Healey kept her promise to protect abortion rights (55% said she definitely kept her promise), while voters are more divided on questions of whether she kept her promises around cutting taxes, reducing the cost of living, increasing construction of more affordable homes, and encouraging more residents to remain living in the state.

On cutting taxes, only 10% responded she definitely kept her promise, 34% said she “somewhat” kept it and 56% said she broke that campaign pledge. Healey signed a tax relief law during her first year in office after the proposal was left unfinished by the Legislature during Gov. Charlie Baker’s final year in office.

Healey came out on top for voter trust on every issue polled. Asked which candidate they trust more to handle cost of living, the majority said Healey (57%) over Minogue (33%), and independent Andrea James (11%). The same pattern emerged for questions of healthcare, education, crime, taxes, housing, abortion and immigration.

It seems Healey has successfully connected her opponent to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Her attack ads and debate performances have focused on painting Minogue as a Republican aligned with the president, saying, “My opponent is somebody who wrote a million-dollar check to Donald Trump.” WCVB reported Minogue donated to Republicans, including Trump, in 2024 and 2025, but he did not write a $1 million check to Trump.

Meanwhile, Minogue has tried to distance himself from associations with the president. He never said his name during either gubernatorial debate, and has made an appeal to political independence central to his campaign.

In Monday’s poll, over 83% of respondents said they found Minogue similar to Trump on issues of abortion, immigration enforcement, healthcare, taxes and transgender rights.

Though the governor has a comfortable lead in the polls, the majority of voters still prefer the structure Massachusetts has frequently had in recent years: a Republican governor to serve as a check on the supermajority Democrat Legislature. Of the 800 respondents, 52% said it’s better for the state to have control of the governor’s office and state Legislature divided between the two parties, to 48% who said having the same party control both.

Poll respondents concerned about the rising cost of living were more likely to blame Trump than Healey. Only 10% blamed Healey, compared to 55% who blamed the president. Others laid blame at the feet of larger corporations (12%), former president Joe Biden (7%), the Democratic Party (7%), Republican Party (6%) and state Legislature (4%).

Ballot questions

The ballot question subjecting the governor’s office and Legislature to the public records law remains the most popular measure: 84% said they would vote for it, including 55% who said they’d definitely vote yes, keeping up high numbers from previous polls.

Other questions favored by those surveyed include: Question 4 to allow Election Day voter registration (67% yes), Question 6 to create a dedicated conservation fund using tax revenue collected from sporting goods (70%), and Question 7 allowing single-family homes to be built in residentially zoned smaller lots (65%).

Question 5, to tighten the state’s tax revenue cap and make taxpayer rebates more likely was supported by 58% of those polled, and 20% opposed it withy 21% of voters who have yet to either make up their mind or learn more about it.

Among the questions that are too close to call from Monday’s poll is Question 2, which would specify that public defenders can unionize. Over half (53%) of respondents said they would likely support it, but still within the margin of error, with 19% against it and the remaining voters polled either undecided or not understanding the ballot question.

Question 3 to create an all-party primary election system is turning out to be another nail-biter: 49% said they were for it, 39% against, while 9% were undecided and 3% did not understand the question.

For the two repeal questions on the ballot, voters look poised to keep things the way they are.

Only 31% of respondents said they would support Question 8 to repeal legal recreational marijuana sales, while 61% are opposed to overturning the young industry, which was created a decade ago via ballot question.

For referendum Question 9, 70% of voters say they plan to vote “yes” to uphold the state’s 2024 gun control law (including 49% who said definitely.) Twenty-one percent said they would probably or definitely vote “no” to repeal the law that increases the regulation of firearms, including ghost guns, machine guns, and assault-style weapons.

Other Democrats

U.S. Sen. Ed Markey retains his comfortable lead against Republican challenger John Deaton, 54% to 28%, with independent candidate Shiva Ayyadurai capturing 5% and 2% of voters for Joseph Tache from the Party for Socialism and Liberation.

Secretary of State William Galvin is polling 59%, compared to his Republican challenger Anne Brensley at 26%; and Attorney General Andrea Campbell captured 55% of respondents, to her Republican opponent Michael Walsh’s 31%.

Treasurer Deborah Goldberg led Elizabeth Dionne (52% to 27%) as she seeks to capture her fourth term and Dionne knocks the treasurer for not debating her.

Democrat Auditor Diana DiZoglio has the most comfortable lead, with 60% of voters saying they’d cast a ballot for her and no major party opponent, but 11% said they would support Libertarian Al Ozonoff.

Election day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.