Let’s start by getting a few things out of the way:
1. There’s not going to be a lot of early upsets this year. The abundance of regular season upsets this year has led to the false sense that this weekend is going to be chaotic. It’s not. That’ll make the tournament less fun Thursday and Friday but potentially more fun in later rounds.
If you weren’t watching mid-major tournaments, you missed a lot of schools who were good enough to author upsets in the big dance get upset themselves in their respective little dances.
Valpo, Monmouth, UAB, Bucknell, Winthrop and Akron are all hoping to make NIT runs, leaving the NCAA with teams less likely to pull upsets.
2. Bet on coaches, especially in the second game of a weekend. It’s the later rounds where parity is more rampant. Coaches who have navigated this kind of run before are more likely to do it again.
3. If you’ve got Michigan State vs. Kansas in the final, you might be right, but you’re going to have the same finals as half the people in your pool so you better be really good early. If you want to try to win one of the national web site’s brackets, your best chance is to pick the right unlikely team making a deep run.
On to the picks:
South Region
Best early upset bet: South Dakota State over Maryland – I’m not picking this, but the Terrapins were pretty inconsistent this season. If it’s mediocre Maryland that shows up, the Jackrabbits could absolutely pull the upset. Worth noting, if South Dakota State wins, the Hares would be upsetting the Tortoises.
Pick I wrestled with: Temple vs. Villanova. The Wildcats have folded badly in their second round tournament games in recent years, but playing the Owls, a familiar foe, helps and hurts. Villanova won’t have to worry about an unknown foe, but Temple isn’t likely to be intimidated. The teams played close not long ago.
Don’t be fooled into: picking Wichita State for a deep run. The Shockers have not been the powerhouse they should have been this season. Some of it was injuries, but they lost games they weren’t supposed to even with a full roster.
Introducing: Stefan Jankovic, Hawaii – The Rainbow Warrior big man is a beast inside. He could get Cal’s strong frontline in foul trouble and open the possibility of an upset.
If you’re trying to win ESPN’s bracket: People seem to forget how often Kansas underachieves in the NCAA Tournament. Cal has been good down the stretch. The Golden Bears are a nice dark horse in this region.
Sweet 16 – Kansas over Cal; Miami over Nova
Final Four bound – There’s a lot or regions I think Kansas could lose in, but I’m reluctantly picking the Jayhawks to reach Houston.
West Region
Best early upset bet: Northern Iowa over Texas – The Panthers weren’t consistent this year, but they upset North Carolina, Iowa State and beat Wichita twice. The Longhorns don’t figure to intimidate them.
Pick I wrestled with: No. 12 Yale vs. No. 5 Baylor – Baylor’s Kryptonite uniforms are emblematic for what the Bears can do to your braket. Baylor is capable of advacing to the elite eight or losing to Yale. They will earn you or cost you a lot of points in your pool either way.
Don’t be blinded by: Your abject hatred of Duke’s Grayson Allen. The Ted Cruz-lookalike Blue Devil guard is carrying the lightning rod baton handed down by Ferry, Laettner, Hurley, Redick and Wojciechowski. But he can play and so can a lot of his teammates.
Introducing: DeAndre Bembry, Saint Joseph’s – He’s doesn’t need much introduction around here as he’s been terrorizing UMass for the last two years. But this could be a coming out part nationally for the uber-versatile Hawk forward.
If you’re trying to win ESPN: Texas A&M is one of the nation’s best defensive teams. In the second game of a weekend that can go a long way. If the Aggies upset Oklahoma, they can absolutely reach the Final Four.
Sweet 16 – Duke over Oregon; Oklahoma over Texas A&M
Final Four bound – Even the WWE doesn’t have good guy-bad guy matchups as well defined as Buddy Hield vs. Grayson Allen would be in the elite eight. Hield and the Sooners will make most of the Duke-hating public happy.
East Region
Best early upset bet: No. 12 Chattanooga over No. 5 Indiana – I don’t have the guts to pick it, but if Indiana plays like it did vs. Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament, the Mocs could become a Cinderella story.
Pick I wrestled with: No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 5 Indiana – It felt like the committee was more focused on creating fun potential second-round rivalry matchups than creating a fair bracket. Possible second round games include Temple-Villanova, Texas vs. A&M and this one. Both team have been very good at times and pedestrian at others.
Don’t be tantalized by the idea of Providence upsetting Carolina: The Friars have the perfect combination of pieces for taking down a giant, a great point guard (Kris Dunn), a versatile scoring forward (Ben Bentil) and a very good coach in Ed Cooley. The problem is UNC’s Marcus Paige neutralizes Dunn, Brice Johnson is better than Bentil and Roy Williams is a hall of famer. The Tar Heels are vulnerable, but this is a good matchup for them.
Introducing: Jameel Warney, Stony Brook – The Sea Wolf forward scored 43 vs. Vermont in the America East final Saturday. The world will see him vs. Kentucky.
If you’re trying to win ESPN: I’m picking West Virginia to win this region in all bracket formats. Carolina reminds me a lot of the 2006 UConn team that was long on talent and short on grit. No team has a higher ceiling than the Tar Heels, but on a lot of nights they haven’t even approached that ceiling.
Sweet 16 – Carolina over Kentucky; West Virgina over Xavier
Final Four bound – West Virginia has beaten Oklahoma and Kansas. The Mountaineers are balanced and talented and have a veteran coach in Bob Huggins.
Midwest Region
Best early upset bet: Little Rock over Purdue – This is a popular choice and since I have Iowa State beating either Purdue or UALR in the next round, it was a safe one to take a shot at. The Boilermakers have a big advantage inside, so the Trojans better make shots.
Pick I wrestled with: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Syracuse – Neither team finished strong which is automatically a red flag. The Flyers are deeper and more experienced than last year when they made a run, but Syracuse and its zone makes for a tricky matchup.
Don’t be fooled by Butler or Gonzaga: The names Butler and Gonzaga as March darlings will jump off the page to casual fans, but both of these programs are full-fledged majors now and neither is poised for any kind of deep run.
Introducing: Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall – In a region loaded with stars, he’s flown somewhat under the radar as the Pirates haven’t been ranked most of the year. After dominating the Big East Tournament, he’ll quickly be a household name this weekend.
If you’re trying to win ESPN: Iowa State has underacheived somewhat this year, but it has the pieces for a deep run.
Sweet 16 – Virginia over Iowa State; Michigan State
Final Four bound – Tom Izzo can find a way to the Final Four even when his roster isn’t loaded. This year it is.
Final Four
Michigan State over West Virginia – This is the end of the ride for the Mountaineers.
Oklahoma over Kansas – I’m just hoping that the third meeting is as good as their triple overtime game in January.
National championship
Michigan State over Oklahoma – I’ve got three Big 12 teams in the Final Four, but the Big Ten team winning it. When the final notes of One Shining Moment are playing, it’ll be Denzel Valentine holding scissors a top a ladder.