To be or not to be a part of the European Union? That was the question that United Kingdom voters answered Thursday as they considered whether the country should remain in the 28-nation bloc it joined in 1973.
Before the votes were counted, local experts weighed in on the implications of a Brexit — the possibility of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union as a result of the referendum.
Experts said the decision to cut ties with the European Union would hurt the country financially and compared the surprising popularity of the “leave” campaign in the U.K. to the unexpected popularity of U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump.
“There is this sense of an underestimated level of disenchantment,” said Desmond Fitz-Gibbon, a history professor at Mount Holyoke College. “It’s not terribly surprising to see these politics emerging … that often veer to the extreme right and fuel a strong sense of national identity.”
Fitz-Gibbon said it is not so much that the campaigns by Trump and “leave” supporters that are similar, but the voters showing their discontent in increased numbers.
Since the country joined the European Union 43 years ago, political parties have raised questions about the legitimacy of the union, which has expanded since its conception, and Britain’s place within it, Fitz-Gibbon explained. Those pushing for separation always existed, but their numbers “have jumped up in the last few years.”
Fitz-Gibbon predicted Thursday afternoon that voters would decide to remain in the European Union, referring to the defeated Scottish referendum to leave the U.K. in 2014.
“When they get to the polls, the public tends to veer on the side of the status quo. They will probably vote to remain in the European Union, but I’m open to being surprised and completely floored,” Fitz-Gibbon said.
A professor who teaches British history courses, Fitz-Gibbon said the United Kingdom will never completely rid itself of the European Union, Brexit or not. The vote would bring a “tepid sense of relief,” the professor said, and quell further arguments to leave the union.
If the United Kingdom decides to remain, the decision could lead to “greater financial calmness,” said Smith College professor Roisin O’Sullivan.
“A Brexit could shake investor confidence,” she said. “It is in the best interest of Britain and the global economy to stay in the European Union.”
O’Sullivan said a Brexit could weaken global financial markets and the purchasing power of the British pound.
“The exchange rate is not a meaningful value of measure,” O’Sullivan said. “It matters if the purchasing power falls and rises in relation to the price right now. For example if yesterday a pound would buy two American dollars, and today it only buys $1.50, that would matter.”
University of Massachusetts Amherst professor Robert Nakosteen agreed, saying a decision to leave the European Union would cause “immediate financial volatility to the stock market beyond the U.K. and the EU.”
For ordinary Americans, he said, equity funds such as 401(k) accounts could experience short-term instability as investors rush to sell assets in the stock market.
The exit would cause the British pound to drop in value and investors would rush to sell stock market assets, Nakosteen predicted. According to the Financial Times, some hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls to advise financial decision-makers ahead of the referendum’s official results.
Looking forward five to 10 years, a Brexit could cause a drop in gross domestic product totaling between 2 and 8 percent, Nakosteen said.
“Free trade would be stymied, it would reduce gross domestic product and incomes in the export market for the U.K.,” Nakosteen said.
Further, the decision to leave would negatively impact the financial services industry in London, “hollowing out” the existing, bustling industry. Nakosteen predicted companies may shrink London operations to grow industry in Frankfurt, Germany, another financial hub in the EU.
The shift could have a positive impact on Germany in terms the financial services industry, Nakosteen speculated.
But UMass Amherst professor Sky Arndt-Briggs, part of the German and Scandinavian studies department, said German Chancellor Angela Merkel is against Brexit for fear of losing a strong ally during a time of instability. Arndt-Briggs cited an article in Deutsche Welle, a German publication written in English.
“Germany has been keen to avoid a Brexit … There would be a huge amount of trouble if Britain leaves,” Arndt-Briggs said, “I think Angela Merkel sees it as a real blow to her.”