The RPI might be headed for extinction or at least a facelift.
The NCAA is convening a collection of the leading basketball analytic experts in an attempt perhaps find or create a better computer ranking system that the selection committee can use to make decisions for seeding and filling the annual field of 68.
A new system could be designed or created from a composite of several the ranking systems already in place. The time seems right to at least discuss it. The fact that even casual fans are familiar with Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin and their ranking systems shows just how mainstream advanced rankings have become.
On Monday’s weekly conference call with the media, Atlantic 10 coaches liked the idea of examining the process.
“I think it’s good. It’s probably a great time for it because you have these huge advances and acceptance of analytics,” Richmond coach Chris Mooney said. “I do think it’s a good way to evaluate. Just by looking at it, I think they’ll come up with something that may be a little bit better.”
Dayton coach Archie Miller agreed.
“The more information that gets into the committees hands, the better. They have a tough job,” Miller said. “You try to play the best teams in the best venues and you give yourself a chance to have a résumé that compares with the numbers.”
Last year, St. Bonaventure was a controversial omission from the tournament field, sparking anger among the Atlantic 10’s coaches and administrators.
Unlike many of his colleagues, Saint Joseph’s coach Phil Martelli doesn’t study advanced metrics, but after seeing the Bonnies left out, he was for change.
“They made a serious, serious, serious error last year with St. Bonaventure,” Martelli said. “That was an NCAA team, and they screwed it up. If this prevents the screw up from happening again, I’m all in. If deserving teams are not going to be left out, I’m fine with it.”
Bonnies coach Mark Schmidt didn’t specifically rehash last year’s frustration, but was glad the process was being looked at.
“I’m very encouraged. They need to do that to get to the best 68 teams. The more people involved and the more experts we can get, the better off it is,” he said. “Whatever it takes to do that, I’m glad they’re looking at it. I think it’s a step in the right direction.”
La Salle coach John Giannini was concerned about how much certain factors would be weighted in whatever new system might be used. Increased value to margin of victory, which is an ingredient in both KenPom.com and Sagarin rankings, specifically has his attention.
“In the last two games we’ve had a 20-point lead with a couple minutes left. I put in a walk-on and some freshman and ended up winning by 10. That really affects you in things like Sagarin and KenPom because they really take margin of victory into consideration,” he said. “Those measurements are probably a little more accurate in terms of your team’s placement nationally. But you’ll know using those measurements that it’s better to win by 20 than 10.
“Maybe you leave your best player in and he gets hurt. Maybe you don’t give a freshman a chance, he gets frustrated and transfers,” Giannini continued. “Maybe you don’t give you walk-ons a chance, and they really deserve it. There’s some hidden issues in there because the final score is more important with those than it is in the RPI.”
VCU coach Will Wade shared his concerns.
“In KenPom, you have to outperform his prediction for you to move up in his rankings. You’re going to have some people trying to blow some people out to make your numbers look as good as possible,” he said. “If you’re up 25 in a conference game, you put your subs in and roll with it. You’re going to have to play guys a little longer and try to win by 30.”
In some sports, a computer ranking system is used almost exclusively. The coaches were unanimous about wanting the committee to still be the final arbiter.
“(Computer rankings) need to be a part of it. I’m not sure what percentage,” Schmidt said. “Numbers paint a pretty good picture, but they don’t paint the whole picture.”
Mooney agreed.
“There will still be some subjectivity to the evaluation, you can’t change that,” he said.
The key thing isn’t just which ranking system to use. All have merits, none is perfect. But the NCAA needs to give the committee clear instruction on how to use it and how much.
In recent years, the weight of the RPI has been inconsistently applied to the process, creating some head-scratching omissions and seeding decisions.
Martelli said the coaches would make do with whatever was decided.
“If the RPI is not the measuring stick, then create the new sauce. Just tell the coaches,” he said. “It does come down to: Win games. Who you play and where you played them. If it changes and they come up with some other way, margin of victory or offensive efficiency, I’ll adjust.”
Wade agreed.
“It’s certainly interesting, There’s going to be a lot of thought from the coaches perspective on how to best position your team,” he said. “Whatever they decide upon, we’ll put ourselves in the best possible position to take advantage of the factors.”
Any change could create different looking tournament fields. Currently Indiana is 88 in the RPI and 64 in the KPI (another metric, whose founder Kevin Pauga will attend the conference). Based on those, Indiana might not make the tournament.
The Hoosiers are No. 23 in the Sagarin rankings and No. 26 in KenPom, which would have them as undoubtedly in.
MY TOP 10 — 1. UCLA, 2. Villanova, 3. Kansas, 4. Kentucky, 5. Gonzaga, 6. Oregon, 7. West Virginia, 8. Baylor, 9. Creighton, 10. North Carolina
For the rest of my Top 25, visit the College Hoop Week Guide on GazetteNET.com’s UMass Sports Blog.
GAMES OF THE WEEK: Kentucky vs. South Carolina, Saturday, 6 p.m. ESPN — With Sindarious Thornwell back, the Gamecocks are the closest thing Kentucky has a to an SEC challenger.
ATLANTIC 10 GAME OF THE WEEK:Richmond at Dayton, Thursday 7 p.m. ESPNU – The Spiders, who were disappointing in non-conference play are clicking in Atlantic 10 action at 5-0.
Dayton, who stumbled at UMass last week is 4-1 and will try to seize back its favorite status.
“Richmond is playing as well as anyone in our conference. We have a big challenge Thursday,” Miller said.
BUZZER BEATER — College basketball, and most importantly Creighton may have at least partially dodged a bullet when point guard Maurice Watson’s knee injury, that he suffered in Monday’s win at Xavier, did not damage his ligaments according to several published reports.
Watson, who entered Monday leading the nation in assists (8.8 per game), didn’t play in the second half.
He’ll be reevaluated Tuesday. He’s not out of the woods and could still miss time. But Watson has been a big part of why Creighton is a fun story this season. Intact ligaments drastically improve the chances he’ll be back.
Matt Vautour can be reached at mvautour@gazettenet.com. Get UMass coverage delivered in your Facebook news feed at www.facebook.com/GazetteUMassCoverage