Even when the NCAA Tournament is subpar, it’s pretty good. But it would be surprising if this year isn’t terrific. That’s saying something after last year’s amazing finish.
This feels like the all-star edition of your favorite reality show, or Jeopardy’s Tournament of Champions. It has marquee programs set up to go deep and star players set to match up. Future NBA players, and current and future hall of fame coaches are all poised to be center stage.
There might be fewer upsets on the front end, but more great matchups on the back end.
On to the picks:
Villanova vs. Duke at Madison Square Garden with the winner going to the Final Four could potentially be one of the best Elite Eight games ever. That’s preseason player of the year favorites Josh Hart and Grayson Allen facing off in a battle of the last two national champs. Anticipation would be through the roof.
Best early upset bet: UNC Wilmington over Virginia.
Pick I wrestled with: Duke vs. Villanova.
Don’t be fooled into: Picking Virginia going deep. The Cavaliers don’t score well enough to stay afloat long.
Introducing: Semi Ojeleye, SMU — The Mustang is a classic college power forward at 6-foot-7, 235 pounds. He can score inside and out and will dominate the glass.
Sweet 16 : Villanova over UNC-Wilmington; Duke over SMU.
Final Four bound: Before the bracket came out I would have guessed Duke and Villanova in the Final Four, but Duke was underseeded as a No. 2. Historically the Blue Devils are vulnerable early and hard to beat late. They’ll win this one.
Arizona’s Sean Miller and Gonzaga’s Mark Few are among the best coaches never to get to a Final Four. If seeds hold they’ll face each other to get one of them off this list. The Wildcats are a national championship contender that nobody is talking about.
Best early upset bet: This region is filled with upset all-stars. Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Princeton and VCU are all featured on any compilation of great NCAA upsets. Vanderbilt coach Bryce Drew would also be prominently included for his historic shot as a player for Valpo.
Any one of those teams is capable of adding to its March legend. Gulf Coast over Florida State feels like the most likely one.
Pick I wrestled with: Gonzaga over West Virginia. The Mountaineers are good enough to knock off the Zags, who have been fighting opponents in a lower weight class for most of the past month. But I think Gonzaga holds on.
Don’t be fooled into: Falling in love with the Northwestern story and picking it for a deep run. Getting to the tournament was a special moment for the Chicago-area school, but the Wildcats aren’t the Cubs and they aren’t built for a deep run. They could beat Vandy, but it’s hard to picture them getting by Gonzaga.
Introducing: South Dakota State forward Mike Daum — The 6-foot-9 3-point-shooting power forward came from out of nowhere to become the Summit League Player of the Year. He’ll be a tough matchup in the first round. Not tough enough to create the first ever No. 16 over a No. 1, but tough enough to make that game interesting for a little while.
Sweet 16 : Arizona over Florida State; Gonzaga over West Virginia.
Final Four bound: Arizona vs. Gonzaga has the makings of a classic. When the teams met in early December in Los Angeles, the Wildcats weren’t at full strength as the Zags prevailed, 69-62. Arizona has its full roster and will win the rematch.
Rarely do the top candidates for national player of the year go head to head, but that could happen when Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan and Kansas’ Frank Mason Jr. go head to head. It’s one of a handful of potentially great matchups that could happen in this region.
Michigan-Louisville, a likely second-round showdown, is a rematch of the 2013 title game.
Best early upset bet: Rhode Island over Creighton. The Rams are healthy and playing well. The Blue Jays are a shell of what made them a top-10 team early in the season. Karma has given Rhody, a school plagued by injures in recent years, a path to the Sweet 16 that features a game against Creighton, which lost Mo Watson for the year, and Oregon, which lost Chris Boucher for the season.
Things could get magical for Rhody.
Pick I wrestled with: Iowa State vs. Purdue. Both teams were top-10 good at one point and both are good enough to beat Kansas. But neither team was at its best reliably often enough. The Jayhawks will likely be rooting for the Boilermakers as the Cyclones have given them trouble before.
Don’t be fooled into: Falling in love with Oregon. The Ducks had a terrific regular season and were Final Four good, but losing Boucher, their shot-blocking last line of defense, is a difficult blow. They’re not the same without him.
Introducing: Vermont freshman forward Anthony Lamb has had a breakout year for the Catamounts. If he can get Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan in foul trouble, UVM could add to its Cinderella history.
Sweet 16 : Kansas over Purdue. Louisville over Oregon.
Final Four bound: Kansas is a flawed team, certainly one capable of suffering an upset like many of its predecessors. But point guards win NCAA Tournament games. Mason is terrific and capable of steering the Jayhawks out of trouble and into the Final Four.
The South has the best subplots. Kentucky coach John Calipari could be back in Memphis trying to play for a shot at the Final Four.
Everybody’s favorite coaching candidates for bigger jobs — Dayton’s Archie Miller and Wichita State’s Greg Marshall — play in the first round. Will Illinois, N.C. State and LSU be waiting to offer contracts to one or both of them after the game.
And who knows what UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball’s father will say next?
Best early upset bet: Minnesota is overseeded and Wichita is underseeded. Middle Tennessee is a terrific bet to bounce Minnesota.
Pick I wrestled with: Almost all of them. Wichita could beat Kentucky. Kentucky could beat UCLA. Butler could beat Carolina. Picking this bracket correctly could win you your pool.
Don’t be fooled into: Discounting Wichita because it’s a No. 10 seed. The Shockers should be in the No. 6-8 range. Vegas has them as a favorite over Dayton.
Introducing: Lonzo Ball. The UCLA point guard is hardly unknown, but for anyone who hasn’t stayed up late, watching him is a revelation. He’s the conductor of a Bruins team that’s outstanding to watch.
Sweet 16 : UNC over Butler. UCLA over Kentucky.
Final Four bound: The Bruins don’t have great defensive numbers, which will scare some people off, but they’ve been much better at that end of the floor in the last month and their offense is outstanding.
Duke over Arizona : Amid injuries, Grayson Allen’s tripping and Coach K’s back injury, it’s easy to forget Duke has more talent than anyone. They’ll show it in this tournament.
UCLA over Kansas : The Jayhawks’ interior questions will be exposed and the Bruins will prevail in a classic.
UCLA over Duke : When the nets are coming down and One Shining Moment is playing, it’ll be Lonzo Ball atop the ladder wearing a championship hat.
Matt Vautour can be reached at mvautour@gazettenet.com. Get UMass coverage delivered in your Facebook news feed at www.facebook.com/GazetteUMassCoverage