Spend enough time around the Northwestern program, and the phrase “stats are for losers” will come up at least a couple of times.
It was coined by Pat Fitzgerald early in his coaching tenure, although now he tends to use different words to communicate the same point. And in reality, stats are never going to accurately portray Northwestern as a team. Numbers cannot explain everything, and that concept applies to the Wildcats.
Northwestern won the Big Ten West last season with an offense that ranked below in 100th in yards per game and most passing statistics. On paper, its defense wasn’t much better, ranking in the middle of the pack in most statistics.
But what the stats don’t show is that the Wildcats held seven of their nine regular-season Big Ten opponents to fewer than 20 points. It doesn’t take into account the timely turnovers Northwestern forced on the way to a third-straight bowl victory, even if it allowed a lot of yards along the way.
The Wildcats’ margins of victory have been slim in recent years, a major reason why the program has taken its fair share of unexpected losses early in the season to Group of Five schools. But it’s a style of play and a mindset that has proven to be successful later in the season with a 15-2 record over the last two seasons in October and November games. A potential issue for UMass, which will make a visit to Evanston, Illinois on Nov. 19 for its penultimate game of the season.
“There’s just a great belief in what we do and how we do things here can lead to championship football,” Fitzgerald said. “The guys are able to take a step back in the offseason and really come to grips with some of the reasons we had a great run from the middle of the season to the end and maybe why we didn’t start the way we wanted to, and what we need to do to flip that around.”
OFFENSE: Despite Northwestern’s recent success, it has come despite the offense having its share of struggles.
The hope is that will change with Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson projected to take the reins of the offense after sitting out last season. Johnson was a five-star prospect out of Indiana when he committed to Clemson, but left the program when Trevor Lawrence became the Tigers’ future.
However, Johnson has not been anointed the starter yet and will battle rising senior T.J. Green for the job when training camp begins. This is not a new ordeal for Fitzgerald, who is entering 14th year in the position, and he said he is willing to be patient to let the decision make itself.
“We’ve always approached this organically,” Fitzgerald said. “We’ve allowed the play on the field, the leadership off the field, the work ethic, the attitude really drive where we go with who the starter ends up being. But we also know that when guys are really competing and doing a good job, there’s no reason to single one guy out over another if there’s still competition going.”
What has kept the Northwestern offense afloat recently has been a strong running game featuring several options at running back. Isaiah Bowser was thrust into the starting role midway through last season after injuries ravaged the backfield and took advantage of the opportunity.
He’ll enter the fall as the likely starter after rushing for 866 yards on 196 carries, but he’ll have more help from John Moten, who has been a strong backup for four years, and Jesse Brown, who missed last season with an injury.
Where Northwestern has lacked most in the past six years is having a dominant wide receiver threat. Bennett Skowronek is the Wildcats’ leading returning receiver with 45 catches for 562 yards, and has the makings of a true top wideout at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds but hasn’t risen to that level yet. Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman and Riley Lees are the only other two returning receivers who made at least 20 catches last season.
DEFENSE: The Wildcats have perfected the craft of the bend-but-don’t-break defense under coordinator Mike Hankawitz.
Teams drove into the red zone 45 times last season against Northwestern, but scored touchdowns on less than half of those possessions. Northwestern held teams to just an 80-percent score rate overall, which ranked 36th nationally last year.
It all starts in the middle with linebackers Paddy Fisher and Bryce Gallagher. The duo both eclipsed 100 tackles last season and were involved in almost all of the action last season. Gallagher led the team with 127 stops, including 7.5 behind the line of scrimmage, and Fisher was close behind with 116 tackles and a team-high four forced fumbles.
The linebackers allowed an explosive pass rush led by Joe Gaziano — who registered 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles-for-loss along with eight quarterback hurries and three forced fumbles last season — to wreak havoc in the opposing backfield. Yet the true strength of the Wildcats’ defense has been its ballhawking secondary that picked off 12 passes and broke up 56 more last year. JR Pace led Northwestern with four interceptions and finished third on the team with 82 tackles last season from his spot at safety.
The question for Northwestern isn’t who’s going to start as much as which younger players will win supporting roles besides these playmakers.
“We’ve got a lot of young talented players that need to learn the system and then just win roles,” Fitzgerald said. “That’s what we’re embarking on right now. How can we best go about getting our best 11 guys on the field and then get our best sub packages together. That process is going to be like the quarterback position, it’s going to take time.”
Josh Walfish can be reached at jwalfish@gazettenet.com. Follow him on Twitter @JoshWalfishDHG. Get UMass coverage delivered in your Facebook news feed at www.facebook.com/GazetteUMassCoverage.