AMHERST — Not all shots are created equally and not all open shots are good shots.
This is especially true when discussing 3-point shooting, something that has become so important in today’s version of basketball. There is almost no room for players who can’t shoot the deep shot, and sometimes that means forcing a round peg into a square hole. That is especially true for UMass this season after T.J. Weeks went down with his hernia injury.
Since losing Weeks from the rotation, the Minutemen have really struggled to shoot from the perimeter. It makes sense given that Weeks was arguably their best 3-point shooter, but statistically it proves just how poor of a perimeter shooting team UMass is aside from Weeks and junior Carl Pierre.
In the 16 games without Weeks, Pierre is shooting a modest 36.4 percent from behind the arc – a figure hindered by a recent slump over the last seven games. The other UMass players are shooting just 28.9 percent in that span to bring the overall 3-point shooting percentage down to 31.5 percent.
UMass is the second-worst 3-point shooting team in the Atlantic 10 during conference play, and it would be disingenuous to say that is because the Minutemen are in a slump. Preston Santos is the only UMass player shooting better than 33 percent from behind the arc in conference play, and that is largely because he is so selective with when he shoots 3-pointers.
Which brings the conversation back to the notion of what is and isn’t a good shot for UMass at the moment. Just because someone can hit a shot doesn’t mean it is in the best interest of the team for them to take that shot. An open shot is not always the best shot, and when the Minutemen have been more selective, their results have been better.
One of the bigger indicators of UMass’ success since Weeks’ injury has been the number of 3-pointers attempted. The Minutemen are 3-2 when they attempt fewer than 20 3-pointers in Weeks’ absence with the two defeats coming at Davidson and at Rhode Island. Meanwhile, they are 3-8 when they attempt more than 20 3s with victories over Maine, Duquesne and Saint Louis.
Giving credit where it is due, UMass shot the ball very well against Maine, but shooting 7 of 19 from deep is the second-best game shooting percentage-wise for the non-Pierre group since Weeks’ injury. The only game better was the blowout loss at Dayton when the group made 6 of 15.
The Minutemen beat Duquesne despite their 3-point shooting, not because of it, making just 4 of 24 from behind the arc. And Tuesday’s win over Saint Louis was well within the statistical range of the season. UMass was just one made 3-pointer better than its shooting average since Weeks’ injury.
It’s not a surprise that UMass is worse at shooting 3-pointers without Weeks on the floor, but it is a slight surprise just how bad the other Minutemen have been. If you exclude Pierre from the equation, the Minutemen have made just a third of their 3-pointers in four of the past 16 games without Weeks. If you include Pierre, that stat doubles to eight of the last 16 contests.
Obviously this does not account for the added benefits that come from threatening an ability to make 3-pointers. The very fact Tre Mitchell can make a jump shot is what allows him to be an effective offensive weapon inside because opponents have to account for him all over the place. But being a threat from the perimeter doesn’t mean needing to live on the perimeter.
UMass has been at its best this season when it’s aggressive on offense, and that means both establishing Mitchell in the post but also attacking the basket. Sean East II’s best offensive games have come when he’s going to the rim and either getting one of his quirky floaters to fall or using the pick-and-roll to find cutters near the basket. When Dibaji Walker has looked the brightest is when he’s able to take 8- to 10-foot jumpers and get to the rim instead of trying to jack up 3s.
The Minutemen (11-15, 5-8 Atlantic 10) head to Fordham (7-18, 1-12) on Saturday at 4 p.m. in need to finding a better offensive balance. That will come if UMass stops convincing itself it’s a good 3-point shooting team and playing into its strengths on offense more. Which is not to say the Minutemen should stop shooting 3s, just be more selective with which ones they attempt.