The good news for the UMass football team is that the 2021 season begins as a blank slate. Following arguably the toughest stretch in program history, the Minutemen enter this weekend’s season opener at Pittsburgh with a bit of pep in their step.
There’s genuine optimism among UMass fans, maybe not necessarily about wins and losses, but about improvement and growth as a program. The fanbase won’t accept another season of lopsided loss after lopsided loss, and while the schedule has its share of highs and lows, there needs to be some victories.
So what exactly can folks expect from the Minutemen this year? Glad you asked. Despite the lack of a crystal ball at our beck and call, we do have an idea what the experts think about UMass’ chances this season. Our friends in Las Vegas who assign numbers for a living released their season win total over/unders back in the spring, and those numbers provided some insight into what the college football landscape may look like in the weeks and months ahead.
UMass’ win total? It’s actually been driven up a bit in some spots, surprisingly. Many sportsbooks released the over/under number at 1.5 victories for the 2021 season, meaning the Minutemen would need to win two games in order to hit an over bet. A 1-11 or 0-12 season would cash for under bettors.
The betting money has actually come in on the over, forcing some books to bump that total from 1.5 to an even two wins. That’s a bit of optimism for a team that went 0-4 a year ago and just 1-11 the previously campaign, but over bettors at that total will need three wins from this season to cash those tickets.
Where are those wins most like to come from? For that, let’s take a ride through the Minutemen’s schedule and take a closer look at rankings and Vegas expectations for the 12 squads on the 2021 slate.
For context, I’m going to use Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings as a guide, along with season win totals provided by sportsbook.ag. Sagarin’s rating includes all 258 schools, combining FBS (I-A) and FCS (I-AA) schools (UMass has two FCS schools on the slate). Sagarin’s most recent set of ratings has UMass at No. 204 out of the 258, second-worst of all 130 FBS squads.
It all gets started Saturday at 4 p.m. at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Minutemen will travel to play a team that should be competitive in the ACC this fall, and the numbers reflect that. Pitt sits at No. 50 in the Sagarin.
Redshirt senior quarterback Kenny Pickett returns to guide an experienced offense that features senior starters at running back, wide receiver, tight end and along the offensive line.
The betting line for Saturday’s game shows little faith from Vegas about UMass’ chances. Pitt is a 38-point favorite over the Minutemen. If you’re betting over on the season win total, this isn’t a spot where you’re expecting a win.
The team with the best Sagarin rating (No. 38) on UMass’ schedule, Boston College is a team a lot of college football experts are bullish about this fall.
The Eagles have dominated UMass in recent meetings, including a 55-21 victory when the programs last met in 2018.
BC should roll in its opener this weekend against FCS foe Colgate (No. 242 in the Sagarin), before traveling to play at McGuirk Alumni Stadium. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec is an NFL prospect, and wide receiver Zay Flowers is a matchup nightmare. The point spread for this game will likely be in the 40-point range as well.
A popular sleeper pick in the MAC this fall, Eastern Michigan (No. 74 in the Sagarin) comes to Amherst in Week 3.
The Eagles (a second straight Eagle mascot) open with FCS St. Francis (Pa.) (No. 222 in Sagarin) Friday night before a very interesting Week 2 trip to play at Wisconsin on Sept. 11. Could seeing UMass seven days later be a letdown spot?
A trip to Myrtle Beach in late September might sound lovely on paper, but playing a team currently in the AP Top 25 Poll (No. 22) on the road is not usually a formula for success.
The Chanticleers are ranked 64th in the Sagarin ratings, noting a sizable discrepency from their AP ranking, though the season win total sits at a lofty 10.5. After a tremendous 2020 season, Coastal should once again be a national story this fall. The two teams last met in 2019, with UMass falling, 62-28.
A second MAC school on the schedule, UMass will entertain a Rockets squad that has the second-best Sagarin rating on the schedule (No. 47). The teams have played twice since UMass moved to FBS, dropping games in 2014 and 2015.
The first spot in the schedule where Vegas thinks UMass might have a shot for a win comes at home in early October. The visiting Huskies (No. 197 in Sagarin) were thumped at Fresno State in their opener last week, and their season win total sits at just 2.5.
UMass won the meeting in 2018 (22-17) before UConn took the rematch in 2019 (56-35). Consistently ranked as two of the bottom five teams in the FBS, this could be a winnable game for the Minutemen should they manage to navigate the difficult early portion of the slate and remain relatively healthy and hungry.
After a bye week, a trip to Tallahassee to play Florida State doesn’t offer much in the way of relief. The Seminoles are ranked No. 59 in the Sagarin, though their win total is just 5.5 as the program seems to be a year or two away from true competitive form in the ACC. But another matchup against a power conference team should be quite a measuring stick midway through the 2021 season.
A familiar school found on recent schedules, the Flames (No. 104 in Sagarin) welcome UMass to town the day before Halloween. Highlight-reel Liberty QB Malik Willis is one of the most fascinating NFL Draft prospects, and someone who pundits think could eventually work his way into the first round come next April.
UMass won the first-ever meeting between the programs in 2018, but Liberty won lopsided games in 2019 and 2020.
Now we get to the true winnable games portion of the slate.
Back-to-back home games against old Yankee Conference foes and current middling FCS squads in Rhode Island and Maine. Vegas doesn’t have season win totals of FCS schools, but both are projected to finish in the middle to bottom of the Colonial Athletic Assocation (CAA).
URI is ranked at No. 183 in the Sagarain, while Maine sits at No. 201. If you bet over two wins on the year, you need to get these two games. Fans of the program won’t react kindly if the Minutemen don’t sweep the pair, either.
A trip to West Point in late November should be chilly, and defending the triple option for one week is usually a tough ask. Army (No. 120 in Sagarin) won the 2019 matchup, 63-7, the only time the two teams have played as FBS foes. I made the trip to West Point when the teams played in 2005, a game that then-FCS squad UMass very much could have won but ultimately fell, 34-27.
Army is expected to be solid once again this year after a stellar 9-3 campaign in 2020. That included a win over Navy for the third time in four seasons.
If UMass was able to get the two wins at this point in the year, season win total bettors will have quite a bit of interest in a season finale on the road at New Mexico State two days after Thanksgiving.
The Aggies are No. 218 in Sagarin, 14 spots below UMass for the worst-ranked FBS team. Sure, a road game, and one quite a distance from Amherst, is never an easy endeavor, but there’s no reason the Minutemen can’t win this one and send you to the ticket window with a winning slip.
But again, who knows right? That’s why they play the games.