This column will take the form of a letter to President Joe Biden asking him what he plans to do next in Afghanistan. American troops are now out of that country. However, the challenges of dealing with Afghanistan under Taliban rule lay ahead.
When asking these questions it is important to keep in mind that any significant decision a president makes is difficult. Often the decisions must be made with imperfect knowledge of all the important facts or what another country’s government would do in response to a U.S. action. Options are never perfect and sometimes a president will need to choose between an option that is bad and one that is even worse.
Dear President Biden: Now that the Taliban are in power in Afghanistan, I am interested in knowing what is next for American policy regarding that country.
Is the United States really out of Afghanistan? You have said, “Our only vital national interest in Afghanistan remains today what it has always been: preventing a terrorist attack on the American homeland.” However, many experts, including Leon Panetta, former secretary of defense and director of the CIA, believe that al-Qaida and the Islamic State (ISIS) will in fact reestablish themselves in Afghanistan.
If your anti-terrorist mission remains and two terrorist organizations (al-Qaida; Islamic State) have a significant presence in Afghanistan, will an American military involvement be required to protect the American homeland against them? Is Afghanistan still a military problem, just in a different way?
How will you fight al-Qaida and ISIS?
You have said that “We’ve developed counter-terrorism over-the-horizon capability (that is the effort to combat terrorists from afar) that will allow us to keep our eyes firmly fixed on any direct threats to the United States in the region and to act quickly and decisively if needed.” How can you be certain of that? The U.S. no longer has troops on the ground to provide intelligence and no longer has airbases in Afghanistan or in any of the countries that border it.
If “over-the horizon” doesn’t work, would you clandestinely insert U.S. operatives, perhaps CIA agents or Navy SEALS to fight ISIS and/or al-Qaida?
To what extent, if any, will your anti-terrorism policy take into account that U.S. airstrikes will inevitably lead to the deaths of innocent Afghan civilians? To what extent, if any, will your anti-terrorist policy require cooperation with the Taliban or at least their assent? Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that it’s “possible” the United States will seek to coordinate with the Taliban on counter-terrorism strikes in Afghanistan against Islamic State militants or others.
Authorization: The legal basis for the American invasion of Afghanistan is based on an “Authorization for the Use of Military Force” passed in 2001. Will you continue to rely of that authorization or submit a request for a new authorization to Congress?
Leverage over the Taliban: The former government of Afghanistan had $9.5 billion in U.S. government-controlled accounts. Those funds are currently blocked pursuant to your order. The lack of funding is a major problem for the Taliban, but also for average Afghans who are already among the poorest people in the world. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said 18 million people — half of Afghanistan’s population — need humanitarian assistance to survive and that one-in-three Afghans “do not know where their next meal will come from.” Do you plan to release those funds if the Taliban government does not permit women to get an education and go to work? What about honoring their promise of amnesty for those who worked in support of U.S. military operations or civilian development projects? Do you have contingency plans if the Taliban arrest and/or execute American citizens or permanent residents?
Diplomatic Relations with the Taliban government: In August, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “A future Afghan government that upholds the basic rights of its people and that doesn’t harbor terrorists is a government we can work with and recognize.” What does Blinken mean by “basic human rights?” What does he mean by “work with?”
Opium: Afghanistan is the world’s largest supplier of opium and many Afghans would be impoverished if they didn’t grow and sell it. Opium is a major source of revenue for the Taliban. Will you try to make an agreement with the Taliban to curb the export of opium?
What lessons have you learned from the Afghanistan experience that will inform American foreign policy in the future?
We Americans should continually ask any president pertinent questions and insist on honest answers. We were misled about Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Maybe our questions can prevent another disastrous foreign involvement.
Richard Fein holds a Master of Arts in political science and an MBA in economics. He can be reached at columnist@gazettenet.com.