This column will focus on reasons a negotiated settlement to end the Iran War is possible. Several factors combine that would give each of the combatant countries (U.S., Israel, Iran) reasons to seek an acceptable, albeit not perfect, agreement: All three countries have already proclaimed victory. Each country has suffered major economic losses and some human casualties. All three countries would reap considerable economic benefits if the war ends.
Let’s look how this plays out for each of the three countries.
Iran: By not losing Iran has already won. The world’s strongest military power, the United States, and the region’s strongest power, Israel, have pounded Iran for weeks. Even so Iran has not surrendered nor has there been “regime change.” Iran has powerful weapons of its own: It has the ability to close the Straits of Hormuz. Iran’s proxies armies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have not been completely destroyed. Iran still has the ability to attack Israel albeit on a reduced scale. The neighboring Arab states in the Gulf are allied to the U.S. If the U.S. and/or Israel attack Iran’s petroleum infrastructure, Iran can destroy the energy producing resources of those Arab countries.
Iran would benefit if the war ends. The economic sanctions from which it has suffered for years would have to be lifted as part of any plausible agreement. The blockade the U.S. recently imposed in the Straits of Hormuz is stopping most of Iran’s oil exports, a vital source of revenue. According to Foreign Affairs magazine “Within weeks of a blockade the country could run out of food… much of which is imported.” An end of the hostilities would end the blockade.
Iran needs to address critical domestic problems. There is a dire shortage of water nationwide and the possibility of evacuating Tehran has been publicly discussed. Inflation is running at 50 percent and will reach 70 percent or more if the conflict continues. An estimated 12 million jobs are at risk, about half of the country’s workforce. Iran has sustained about $240 billion in damages which will take years to repair.
The United States has achieved some of its goals. It has destroyed most of the infrastructure needed for Iran’s long-range missile program and building a nuclear weapon. Killing Iran’s top leaders is enough for President Donald Trump to call it “regime change” despite the reality of the situation.
On the other hand Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains hidden somewhere in its 636,400square miles of territory. This problem can only be solved by an agreement to end the conflict. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz (first by Iran, now by the US) has already caused significant price increases for gasoline and other products. In addition, the war has cost the U.S. at least $52 billion already. Continuing the war would be a political liability for Trump.
Israel: If the war ends Israel can still claim some success. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the public that if Israel had not attacked Iran “they would already have a nuclear weapon. We succeeded in smashing its nuclear program, in smashing its missile program.”
On the other hand Israel has not eliminated Iran’s highly enriched uranium. A negotiated end to hostilities might do that. What’s more, Israel may not have the resources to continue the war. For example, its depleted Iron Dome stockpile has been less successful in stopping Iranian missiles from penetrating Israel’s defenses. Israel’s military leaders have announced that its army is overstretched. Troops are needed for Lebanon and the West Bank. In addition, the military aspects of the war have cost about $15 billion already. The economic slowdown and damage to civilian property have cost billions more. To Netanyahu’s embarrassment, the security policies of Israel’s government have been subordinated to the decisions made by President Trump. For example, Netanyahu learned about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire from the news media. Israel is not even a participant in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
The two week ceasefire demonstrated how Israelis could benefit from an end to hostilities. Israelis didn’t need to head for bomb shelters three times a day. The economy got moving again and the children went back to school. Looking ahead, a U.S.-Iran agreement would probably include an end to attacks from Hezbollah on Israel’s northern communities. It’s important to note that Israel has been at war since the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2022. Its traumatized population needs some time to recover .
Final thoughts: Many people will feel, with considerable justification, that my perspective is overly optimistic. After all, wars are easier to start than to end. Even seemingly rational decisions can result in unintended consequences.
This war, like all wars, has many victims already. Let’ hope that it ends soon.
Richard Fein holds a master’s degree in political science and an MBA in economics. He can be reached at columnist@gazettenet.com.