AMHERST — Should the four towns in the Amherst-Pelham Regional School District limit their assessment increases next year, 35 middle and high school staffers, or 10% of the 350-member workforce, could lose their jobs, leading to what Superintendent E. Xiomara Herman is calling the dismantling of local public secondary education.

In advance of a four-towns meeting Saturday at 9 a.m. at the middle school library, Herman told the Regional School Committee on Tuesday that to support existing services, the fiscal year 2026 budget would have to increase to $38.11 million, up $2.34 million, or 6.5%, over the current fiscal year’s $35.77 million budget.

But there is significant risk that not enough money will be available from the member towns, since both Amherst and Pelham have asked the school leaders to build the budget from a smaller base, which coupled with conventional 2.5% increases would leave a funding deficit at $2.62 million. Deficits would continue hovering close to $1 million annually in the following three budget years.

“We would cripple the region in a way that we would not be able to offer quality or competitive educational programs,” Herman said. “We probably wouldn’t even be able to offer base programs.”

Herman’s presentation came in response to the Amherst Town Council informing school officials that it couldn’t support the schools beyond a 2.5% increase in fiscal year 2026, and to also not build the fiscal year 2026 budget with a 6% increase as the base, but rather a 4% base. This means removing the additional $355,440 provided by Amherst to meet the town’s obligation above the 4% assessment hike initially agreed to, and taking away an additional $82,137 provided by the other towns above the 4% increase.

Pelham’s Finance Committee has also asked for a budget increase in the 2.5% range.

Herman said there are still many unknowns, including state Chapter 70 aid, the outcome of contract negotiations with the Amherst Pelham Education Association, the proposal for transportation, and health and liability insurance.

Still, she wanted to lay out the scenario being faced and the risks the district could lose more students to school choice and charter schools. “The reality is we need to inform the four towns,” Herman said.

Amherst representative Jennifer Shiao said school leaders will need a strategy for funding. “I don’t see what the game plan is,” Shiao said.

Amherst representative Bridget Hynes said that more than 2.5% has to be offered by the four towns. “I think strategically we have to talk back to what’s in the letters, because there’s just some basis of fact and knowledge that don’t line up with the realities of what we see in the schools,” Hynes said.

That the towns are contending the extra money they contributed in this year’s budget is a gift doesn’t sit well with Amherst representative Irv Rhodes. “That is our base, that is where we’re starting from, and that is something arguably we are due,” Rhodes said, adding that children deserve better than having a $2.5 million funding deficit.

In a follow-up interview Wednesday, Herman said she wanted to draw a picture of the worst-case scenario, where the regional schools may be left with just core subjects.

“We’re going to have to be cutting anyway, it’s just how severe will the cut be,” Herman said.

“For me, it’s not just about one year, but what are we going to do in the region over the next few years,” Herman said. “What’s best for children, what can we truly afford and sustain.”

Herman said the long game is make sure the district is not losing students to school choice and charter schools and paying large sums for out-of-district placements. She is also trying to find sustainable practices that haven’t yet been identified, stabilizing funding so that students stay and come back to the regional schools.

“We are known for our diversity as a student body; we want to be known for our diversity of programming,” Herman said.

Scott Merzbach can be reached at smerzbach@gazettenet.com.