One year since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, professors across the Five Colleges specializing in the Middle East, international relations and world security cast a dour view on the future of the conflict, with recent Israeli incursion into Lebanon to fight against Hezbollah and a likely retaliation against rocket attacks from Iran threatening a full-out regional war.

The war began following an attack by Hamas militants in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 Israelis and taking more than 200 hostages to the Hamas-controlled Gaza strip. The attack came as a shock to Israel and international observers, who had believed that such an attack was improbable given the country’s strong security measures and technological superiority.

“It changed the psyche of Israel,” said Andy Reiter, a professor of politics and international relations at Mount Holyoke College. “There have been low level rocket attacks and small-scale terrorist attacks from Hamas. But this type of large-scale incursion into Israeli territory and the sheer number of Israelis who were killed and kidnapped, that was a significant escalation.”

In response to the attacks, Israeli troops began a ground invasion of Gaza, declaring war against Hamas and leading to widespread destruction throughout the Gaza strip, home to some 2 million Palestinians.

According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, more than 40,000 Palestinians have died since the conflict began, with many more facing injuries and lack of proper access to food and water. More than two-thirds of all building structures in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed since the conflict began, according to the United Nations. Despite the destruction, around 100 of the hostages taken by Hamas remain unaccounted for.

“The entire region of Gaza is essentially devastated, and it’s hard to imagine how rebuilding is going to happen,” said David Mednicoff, an associate professor of Middle Eastern studies and public policy at UMass Amherst. “The West Bank also has a situation where more right-wing Israelis are using the conflict as an excuse to really clamp down on Palestinians.”

Despite the war’s instigation by Hamas, the subsequent Israeli action in Gaza has led to backlash and a reduction in favorable perception by the U.S. and global public. Protests have erupted across American college campuses over the past year, including at UMass Amherst, where over 130 students, faculty and activists were arrested after making an encampment in front of the Student Union building. Numerous other protests against Israeli’s actions in Gaza have occurred across the Pioneer Valley since the war began.

Reiter said that the lower global opinion of Israel only further incentivized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue his military campaign.

“If they [Israel] backs down, it’s not like all of a sudden the world is going to say ‘great job restraining yourself,’” Reiter said. “If they’ve already made so many enemies and everyone already thinks what they’re doing is wrong, then you may as well just go all in and finish them off.”

Such a view is shared by Suleiman Ali Mourad, a professor of religion and Middle East studies at Smith College, who said the same calculus also could be ascribed to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

“Often times in situations where you are pushed into a corner and you have nothing else to lose, then you might completely hegemonize your reactions,” Mourad said. “By escalating this, you are putting Hezbollah against the corner, saying you choose war or complete annihilation and surrender, and Hezbollah is never going to surrender.”

Mourad added the factor of religious fervor on both sides also contributed to escalation of the conflict. The anniversary date of Oct. 7 itself has religious significance, taking place during the “Days of Awe” also known as the “Ten Days of Repentance,” the period between the Jewish holidays of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.

“[Netanyahu] is emboldened by a biblical vision, that we are predestined, God is on our side, God promised us this place,” he said. “At the same time, you have something similar on the Iran-Hezbollah side, and your belief in the truth of your ideology puts you in a bind. If God really is on your side, he’s going to come to your rescue, and if you fail, this is part of God’s plan.”

A new front in Lebanon

In recent weeks, a new front of the war has opened in southern Lebanon, with Israeli troops entering the country and launching rocket attacks that killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, a Shia Islamist group with close ties to Iran and considered a terrorist group by Israel and the United States. Iran responded by launching around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted.

Though the future of how the conflict will play out is unknown, the consensus among those interviewed for this story was that things would get much worse before they got better.

“I wish I could offer some optimism, but I don’t see it in this moment,” said Michael Klare, a professor emeritus of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “I think the Netanyahu position is to keep fighting until Israel has no enemies, or they’re so weakened that Israel will be safe. I think this is delusional myself, but that’s his strategy.”

Mednicoff said there was “little doubt” that the current situation posed the highest risk of an all-out war the region seen in recent times.

“Some of the leaders in the confrontation states, including Netanyahu, seem to feel like keeping the conflict going is in their best interest,” he said. “Obviously the vast majority of Israelis, the vast majority of Lebanese, the vast majority of Iranians don’t want a major war between the two countries. But there are some folks in Israel and I would even say in Washington who feel like this is a military opportunity for Israel and to put Iran in it’s place.”

An escalation of the war would also put pressure on the U.S., a staunch ally of Israel, on how to respond to the situation, particularly with the upcoming presidential election between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Klare argued that a Trump presidency would benefit Netanyahu, allowing him a freer hand to use American weapons in the war.

“It’s been a push-pull kind of situation in the Biden administration as far as this escalation strategy,” Klare said. “I think [Netanyahu] figures that with Trump in power, there will be no push-pull, it’ll be all push.”

Mourad took an opposing view, saying Trump’s unpredictability and tendency to turn on allies if angered made him less favorable than Harris, who would follow the Biden administration’s line of supporting Israel throughout the conflict.

“Netanyahu is a very savvy, calculating politician and he knows how to twist the arm of Biden and the Harris election committee, that if you don’t please Netanyahu he’s going to endorse Trump,” he said. “I don’t think Trump would have done more for Israel than Biden has done in the past year.”

Alexander MacDougall can be reached at amacdougall@gazettenet.com.